Embraer has published Market Outlook 2025, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category. The report was released in advance of the Paris Air Show next week.
Market Outlook 2025 estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft. Because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, statistics for China are detailed separately in this year’s Market Outlook for the first time.
The document also analyzes demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for passenger-to-freighter conversions.
The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate. Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, attributes the consistency of the estimate to the longevity of social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends Embraer identified during the pandemic.
“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”
Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook – By the Numbers
World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is forecast to grow 3.9% annually through 2044. China will lead among seven global regions.
Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked
5.7% China
4.7% Latin America
4.4% Africa
4.4% Middle East
4.1% Asia Pacific
3.1% Europe & CIS
2.4% North America
RPK share by the end of 2044
39% Asia Pacific
37% Europe + North America
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats
10,500 units
8,720 jets
1,780 turboprops
Market value of all new aircraft
USD 680 billion
Jet deliveries - 8,720 (% share) – by region
2,680 North America (30.7%)
1,990 Europe & CIS (22.8%)
1,500 China (17.2%)
1,050 Asia Pacific (12.1%)
770 Latin America (8.8%)
380 Africa (4.4%)
350 Middle East (4.0%)
Turboprop deliveries - 1,780 (% share) – by region
640 Asia Pacific (36.0%)
280 North America (15.7%)
260 Europe & CIS (14.6%)
220 Africa (12.4%)
200 China (11.2%)
160 Latin America (9.0%)
20 Middle East (1.1%)
