ACC Aviation has reported a stable global ACMI market in Q1 2026, with activity levels closely mirroring Q1 2025. However, according to ACC Aviation, this headline stability conceals significant shifts across aircraft segments and regions - pointing to a more volatile outlook for the remainder of the year.
The data reflects a period largely preceding the full impact of recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have driven sharp increases in jet fuel prices and are expected to influence airline strategy and ACMI demand throughout 2026.
“On the surface, the ACMI market appears stable, but when you look deeper, there are clear structural changes already underway,” said Dave Williams, Director of Leasing at ACC Aviation. “What we’re seeing is a rebalancing of demand across different aircraft segments, driven by both operational recovery and shifting airline priorities.”
Narrowbody Weakness Offsets Widebody Growth
The narrowbody ACMI segment recorded a 10.1% decline year-on-year in Q1 2026, primarily due to reduced demand from major operators such as IndiGo, Viva (Mexico), and AJet. This shift reflects improved fleet availability following the resolution of Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issues that had significantly disrupted capacity in 2025.
“A large part of narrowbody ACMI demand over the past year was driven by engine-related groundings,” Williams explained. “As those issues have been brought under control, airlines are naturally stepping back from short-term leasing solutions.”
In contrast, the widebody segment saw strong growth of 30.1%, driven by increased activity among major Middle Eastern and global carriers including Saudia, Etihad Airways, Emirates, and Turkish Airlines. Growth in cargo demand and strategic fleet expansion also contributed to this upward trend.
“Widebody demand is telling a very different story,” added Williams. “We’re seeing airlines actively leveraging ACMI to support long-haul operations, manage capacity, and respond to cargo opportunities. That trend is likely to continue in the near term.”
The turboprop segment also experienced notable growth of 22.4% year-on-year, largely driven by SAS’s operational ramp-up through its partnership with Braathens.
Early Signs of Pressure Ahead of Market Disruption
Even before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the European narrowbody ACMI market was already showing signs of oversupply, with operators optimistically hoping for stronger summer demand.
“We were already seeing signs of softness in the European narrowbody market heading into the summer,” Williams noted. “There’s been an element of overcapacity, with operators positioning themselves for demand that hasn’t fully come through.”
With jet fuel prices rising and airlines reassessing cost structures and fleet strategies, the outlook for the remainder of 2026 is expected to shift.
“The real impact of rising fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty will become clearer in Q2 and beyond,” Williams concluded. “Airlines will need to remain agile, and ACMI will continue to play a critical role - but likely in a more dynamic and selective way.”
